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POLITICAL SCIENCE 515 (27790)

M 4-6:40 SH 347
R. Hofstetter NH-119MT 6-7 594-6244
rhofstet@mail.sdsu.edu X

RESEARCH METHODS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE: DESIGN AND COMPUTER APPLICATIONS

GOALS:

This course is the first in a two-semester sequence that introduces students to the method and applied techniques of applied empirical research in the social sciences. Emphasis this semester will be on an introduction to statistical analysis of behavioral data, elementary computer literacy using one of the major statistical packages and a data processing package, and selected topics in conceptual analysis, measurement, and scaling. In general, this is a class in how to do research. It should clarify much of what is expected in a scientific Masters' thesis project.

MATERIALS:

Required:
H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches.Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000.
Fred Davidson, Principles of Statistical Data Handling. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 1996.
Ronald F. Kind, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Science, 2004, Chapters 1-4, 9, 10. Available on line and SDSU library electronic reserve.
Xeroxed materials: Essays, selected chapters of Ronald F. King, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Research. Mimeo, 2005.
Two 3.5" floppy disks formatted for PC.
Recommended but Not Ordered for this Class:
Kate L. Turabian, A Manual for Writers of Term Papers, Theses, and Dissertations, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 5th ed., 1987).
Publications Manual of the American Psychological Association, (Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association, 3rd ed., 1989).
Read the journals of your prospective profession and of other behavioral sciences regularly. These include but are by no means limited to: American Political Science Review, American Journal of Politics, Political Research Quarterly, Journal of Politics, International Studies Quarterly, Public Opinion Quarterly, Polity, etc.
Become familiar with SPSS Syntax Reference Guide, Current Release. Available in SSRL (Multiple volumes and very expensive to purchase).

REQUIREMENTS:

The syllabus is intended as a guide to the pace, assignments, and content of the course. The class may deviate from these dates as necessary to facilitate comprehension.

Grades will be based on quality of responses to a series of exercises, a comprehensive take-home final examination, and attendance. Late papers will not be accepted unless I approve in advance of the due date, so please do not ask. Rare exceptions may be made but reasons will not include sporting events (except by SDSU policy), vacations, or airplane reservations. Reading should be completed in a manner which maintains pace with the topics being discussed and the lectures. Students are expected to attend all lectures, computer workshops, and discussions, complete each exercise by the scheduled time, and participate in class discussions.

Students may work in teams of up to four persons and turn in a collective paper. Each student in the team will be graded based on the team score. If students on a team complain to me that someone is not doing his/her share (a "free rider") of work on an exercise I will reassign that person to a group of one for the rest of the semester.

I encourage students to sign up for one unit credit by taking the SPSS Windows Workshop series (if offered) by SSRL (basement of PSFA).

Students may also wish to enroll in 1-3 hours of POLS Individual Studies research under my direction which may be available depending on the specific situation at the time. This research has often resulted in an M.A. or senior theses and joint publications with students.

SDSU students should obtain an e-mail account. Information and software are available through the bookstore at SDSU. The Social Science Research Laboratory and similar units on campus offer no-charge training in the use of e-mail, and other computer procedures. I have included my e-mail address on this syllabus to enable students to communicate with me outside my normal office hours. I anticipate that students will make use of this opportunity in case they wish to communicate with me outside of office hours, since I do not use voice mail at SDSU.

September 21 is the last day to add or drop this class.
GRADING:
Graded Exercises 45% (Go to Exercises)
Final Comprehensive Examination45%
Attendance10%

Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. All written work must be your original work (i.e., not previously submitted for credit in any other course, either at SDSU or at any other academic institution). Please familiarize yourself with the University Policy regarding Cheating and Plagiarism at: http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/dept/senate/policy/pfacademics.html And also be aware of the Student Grievances procedure, available on-line at: http://www.sa.sdsu.edu/srr/statement/sectionVII.html


Course Outline

I. Scientific Inquiry, Research Design, Measurement, and Data Processing
Introductory Xerox Readings:Sept. 12
i. C. Richard Hofstetter, "Empirical Analysis Paper." A concise description of what should be included in reporting an scientific analysis whether in a term paper, M.A. or Senior thesis, or refereed publication. Xerox Readings.
ii. Paul R. Gross and Norman Levitt, "Knocking Science for Fun and Profit," Skeptical Inquirer, (March/April, 1995), pp. 38-41. Xerox Readings.
ii. Ronald F. Kind, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Science, 2004, Chapters 1, 2.
iv. Comment, "The Intellectual Free Lunch," The New Yorker, (1994), pp. 4-5. Xerox Readings.
v. "About Social Science," Chapter 1, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 3-26, and "Resources for Research," Appendix F, pp. A14-A15.
vi. v. Ronald F. King, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Research. Mimeo, 2005, Chapter 1, "Lesson 1: Introduction."
A. Language, Methods, and Techniques of ScienceSept. 19
i. "About Social Science," Chapter 1, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 3-26, and "Resources for Research," Appendix F, pp. A14-A15.
ii C. Richard Hofstetter, "Political Talk Radio, Situational Involvement, and Political Mobilization," Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 79, No. 2, (June, 1998), pp. 273-286.
iii. C. Richard Hofstetter and David Barker with James T. Smith and Gina M. Zari, "Information, Misinformation, and Political Talk Radio," Political Research Quarterly, Vol. 52, No. 2, (June, 1999), pp. 353-369. Xerox Readings.
iv. Ronald F. Kind, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Science, 2004, Chapter 3.
v. Come to class prepared to discuss: C. Richard Hofstetter and David M. Dozier, "Useful News, Sensational News: Quality, Sensationalism and Local TV News," Journalism Quarterly, Vol. 63, No. 4, (Winter, 1986), pp. 815-820, 853. Xerox readings.
NOTE: Exercise 1 Due September 26.
B. Research DesignSept. 26
i. "The Foundations of Social Research," Chapter 2, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 29-64, and "Preparing for Research," Chapter 3, pp. 65-99.
ii. Ronald F. King, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Research. Mimeo, 2005, Chapter 4, "Lesson 4: Causal Modeling (I): Bivariate Linear Representations."
iii. Ronald F. Kind, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Science, 2004, Chapter 4, 9.
Exercise 1 due.
Exercise 2 due September 30. LAST DAY TO ADD OR DROP THIS CLASS: September 21, 2003. LAST DAY TO APPLY FOR October, 2005, graduateion
C. Research DesignOct. 3
i. "Research Design: Experiments and Experimental Thinking," Chapter 4, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 103-142.
ii. Ronald F. Kind, The Strategy of Research: Thirteen Lessons on the Elements of Social Science, 2004, Chapter 10.
NOTE: Exercise 2 due October 10.
E. Introduction to Sampling.Oct. 10
i. "Sampling," Chapter 5, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 143-185.
ii. "Sampling" Xeroxed materials.
Exercise 2 due. Optional revision of exercise 1 due. NOTE: Exercise 3 due October 17.
D. Interviewing and SurveysOct. 17
i. "Interviewing: Unstructured and Semistructured," Chapter 6, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 189-225, and "Structured Interviewing," Chapter 7, pp. 227-283.
ii. "Interviewing Instructions" Xeroxed materials. WEB ADDRESS????
iii. Exercise 3 due.
E. Content Analysis Oct. 24
i. "Qualitative Data Analysis I: Text Analysis," Chapter 12, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 437-469.
ii. Skim article for content analysis. Read later more carefully for reliability and validity.Paul J. Strand and C. Richard Hofstetter, "Television News Coverage of the 1972 Election: A Convergent and Discriminant Validation of Some Content Indicators," Political Methodology, Vol. 3, (1976), pp. 507-522. Xerox Readings. NOTE: Exercise 4 due October 31.
E. Data and Data Processing: Data Matrix Oct. 31
i. "Introduction to Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis," Chapter 11, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 417-436.
ii. "Introduction: A Principled Approach," Fred Davidson, Principles of Statistical Data Handling. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 1-22, and "Data Input," Chapter 2, pp. 23-55.
Exercise 4 due.
NOTE: Exercise 5, 6 due November 21.
G. SPSS: Familiarization Laboratory Nov. 7
G. Analysis, Data Entry Nov. 14
G. Measurement and Scaling Nov. 21
i. "Scales and Scaling," Chapter 8, H. Russell Bernard, Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, pp. 285-316.
Exercises 5, 6 due. NOTE: Exercise 7 due November 28.
H. Reliability and Validity Nov. 28
i. Samuel Messick, "The Once and Future Issues of Validity: Assessing the Meaning and Consequences of Measurement," in H. Wainer and H. I. Braun (eds.), Test Validity, Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum, 1988. Xeroxed Readings.
ii. Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice, Vol. 16, No. 2, (Summer, 1997): "Editorial: The Great Validity Debate," p. 4, Lorrie A. Shepard, "The Centrality of Test Use and Consequences for Test Validity," pp. 5-8, 13, 24, W. James Popham, "Consequential Validity: Right Concern, Wrong Concept," pp. 9-13, Robert L. Linn, "Evaluating the Validity of Assessments: The Consequences of Use," pp. 14-16, William A. Mehrens, "The Consequences of Consequential Validity," pp. 16-18. Xeroxed Readings.
iii. Stuart W. Cook & Claire Selltiz, "A Multiple-Indicator Approach to Attitude Measurement, " Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 62, (1964), pp. 36-55. Xerox Readings .
iv. Donald T. Campbell & Donald W. Fiske, "Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix," Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 56, (1959), pp. 81-105. Xerox Readings .
v. Paul J. Strand & C. Richard Hofstetter, "Television News Coverage of the 1972 Election: A Convergent and Discriminant Validation of Some Content Indicators," Political Methodology, Vol. 3, (1976), pp. 507-522. Xerox Readings .
Exercise 7 due. NOTE: Exercise 8, 9 due December 5.
II. Data Processing, Analysis
II. Data Manipulation and Processing Dec. 5
i. "Data Manipulation," Fred Davidson, Principles of Statistical Data Handling. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications, Inc., 2000, Chapter 3, pp. 56-114, and "Data Debugging,," Chapter 4, pp. 115-145.
ii. Exercises 8, 9 due. Exercise 10 due December 12.
iii. Distribute Take Home examination. (DUE: December 12)
B. Discussion Dec. 12
Exercise 10 due.
Take Home Examination Due.

Exercises

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Instructions: Non-statistical exercises are to be typed and double-spaced, although diagrams may be drawn in by hand so long as the work is neat and orderly. Handwritten interpretations of statistical analyses will be accepted as long as they are legibly written/printed. Each exercise will be graded on a 0-10 point scale. Exercises may be completed by teams of up to four students working collectively. Each student in a group will receive the grade given to the group's paper.
EXERCISE 1
Write a short, concise (not to exceed two double-spaced pages each using a type font of 10 pt. or larger and one inch margins) paper for each Reading (1.A.ii. And 1.A.iii.). The premium in this exercise is to be concise and precise. materials. A.ii and A.iii are available in xeroxed materials. Focus on the 4-5 most important concepts. The papers should include:
  1. An simple arrow diagram of the theory guiding research. What causes what? What is related to what? Draw a circle around each of the main concepts. Draw arrows between the concepts to indicate implied or explicit causality.
  2. Explicit Conceptual definitions. What are components of theory? Concepts are the building blocks of theory; they are labels that apply directly or indirectly to simple properties of physical objects (people, states, bureaucracies, etc. A conceptual definition defines the property in terms of other meaningful words in a non-circular way.
  3. Explicit Operational definitions. What is observed to measure concepts? How are categories formed and numbers assigned to them? An operational definition specifies what observables are taken to indicate the presence and magnitude of a concept (i.e., indicators). An operational definition is an explicit statement of what the indicators are and how categories are formed (usually in terms of numbers).
  4. Brief critiques of A.iii and A.iv. How could these be improved? What is good about them?
EXERCISE 2
Write a (not to exceed) one-page paper based on each article used to complete Exercise 1 (Readings A.ii and A.iii). Each paper should include:
  1. A brief description of the research design used. How were data collected? Concepts measured? Temporal and spatial characteristics?
  2. A critique of the design (failures, logical or conceptual errors, etc.).
  3. Outline an alternative, better design, saying why it is better.
  4. Brief critiques of A.iii and A.iv. How could these be improved? What is good about them?
  5. A brief critique of your alternative design.
EXERCISE 3
Design a sampling frame to produce a random-digit-dial (RDD) sample of the adult population of San Diego that can be reached by residential telephone.
  1. Describe each step in producing the sample.
  2. Provide the targeted demographic data (from the U.S. Census-you will have to do some searching of the site to find the desired data) and describe how you would evaluate the sample.
  3. Which adults are likely to be omitted from the frame? Under represented by the frame?
  4. What steps can you take to minimize such biases?
EXERCISE 4
Design and execute a content analysis of the extent to which two issues of a daily newspaper provides enlightenment about public policy and the operation of politics. Using the same design, execute a parallel content analysis of the extent to which two issues of a second daily newspaper provides similar enlightenment. Sample 10 items from each newspaper (if at least 10 items are not include in each issue, select another newspaper). Be sure to include standard measures of length and position of items. Turn in:
  1. Briefly describe the rationale for each analysis --Methodologically, why are you designing the analysis according to your plan? Conceptually, what do you hope to learn from your design?
  2. Provide explicit conceptual definitions as planned in your analysis. That is, define the concepts explicitly in words.
  3. Provide operational definitions, including explicit rules for:

    a. Your method of sampling content. What is your unit of sampling (e..g., news item/paragraph in news story/sentence in paragraph/words in sentences)?

    b. Classification of content into values/categories. How did you decide to code content? How you delineate units of content for coding? Where does one items stop and another begin?

  4. Attach a copy of all your coding sheets.
  5. Explain exactly what content you coded from TV news and newspaper. Include the number of items you actually coded from each source.
EXERCISE 5
Using the questionnaires at the end of the xeroxed reading, complete preliminary processing of raw data using SPSS. The exercise requires you to:
  1. Create a data dictionary in Excel or a word processor format, print, and save to floppy disk.
  2. Create an SPSS Windows data set, print, and save to floppy disk. This requires you to (code if necessary and) enter the data into an SPSS data window.
  3. Clean data by printing file, marking errors, and checking accuracy visually. If no errors, write "no errors" on the page. Save cleaned data to floppy disk.
  4. Turn in the printed pages with annotations about what they represent and how you did it.
EXERCISE 6
Using the coding sheets from the content analyses in exercise 4, above, complete preliminary processing of raw data using SPSS. For each content analysis:
  1. Create a data dictionary for the dataset in Excel or word processor format, print, and save to floppy disk.
  2. Create an SPSS Windows data set, print, and save to floppy disk. This requires you to (code if necessary and) enter the data into an SPSS data window.
  3. Clean data by printing file, marking errors, and checking accuracy visually. If no errors, write "no errors" on the page. Save cleaned data to floppy disk.
  4. Turn in the printed pages with annotations about what they represent and how you did it.
EXERCISE 7
a. Find a published articles in professional journals that includes multi-item, unidimensional empirical measures of "liberalism," "nationalism," and "political tolerance." b. Cite the articles and describe each measure as developed in the study. Include the purpose of the measure and the questions used to compute the measure. c. Then, write your own measure of "liberalism," "nationalism," and "political tolerance" stating how your measure is an improvement over the published measure. Be sure to make an explicit statement of the old and new items, indicating which items are yours.
EXERCISE 8
Using each paper from Exercise (Readings I.A.ii and I.A.iii), w rite a (not to exceed) two-page paper (each reading) which includes:
  1. Description of measures, scales, and indices used. Be sure to include verbatim wording of items and describe how items were combined to form a scale value.
  2. An assessment of reliability and validity of measures. What evidence is provided? What can your infer from the study in addition to whatever is provided concerning reliability and validity?
  3. Outline of alternative measures for each concept and how reliability and validity might be assessed. Provide verbatim wording of questions and describe how you intend to form a single composite measure from your items.
  4. A critique of your alternatives. What are weaknesses of your measures?
EXERCISE 9
Describe specifically how you would evaluate the reliability of each scale you designed in Exercise 6. Be sure to include the verbatim items that you constructed for that purpose in order to remind me of what the items were.
EXERCISE 10
Using the datasets created in exercises 5 and 6:
  1. Print cleaned data from exercises 5 and 6, above.
  2. Completing preliminary analysis for descriptive/diagnostic quality control procedures. This should include checking for wildcodes and unlikely/illogical codes (consistency) using FREQUENCIES and CROSSTABS runs. Data errors should be edited to correct all errors after checking against protocols. Print the SPSS syntax that you used for these operations.
  3. Turn in copies of editing/processing runs (syntax and output) before and after editing has been completed for: a. A LISTing of variables and values, b. SPSS FREQUENCIES run, and c. CROSSTABS run.
  4. Save processed data for each of the three files on a floppy disk.
  5. Turn in data listing with marked errors.

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Empirical Analysis Paper and Crosstabulation

Political Science

Each student will prepare one or more empirical analyses of some topic within the general field for which data from a reputable research institution are available. The paper is to be formatted like an article that would appear in any one of the following journals (the styles differ a bit by journal, but any are appropriate for the assignhment): American Journal of Sociology, American Journal of Political Science, Social Forces, American Sociological Review, Public Opinion Quarterly, and American Political Science Review. Each student should read at least one article in one of the above journals before writing his/her paper in order to be certain that the paper you read as a model includes data analysis.

In general, student papers must include at least:

1) Introduction, A presentation of hypotheses to be tested in the paper that are thoroughly grounded in empirical research related to the topic. This section should constitute a review of the literature and an explicit statement of research hypotheses. Background reading should be reviewed and cited in the introductory section of the paper.

2) Methodology. Researchers commonly devote a short section (although the length of the methodology section may vary according to the purpose of a particular paper) to outlining the type and source of date that are to be used in an analysis, and, if sampling is employed, a full discussion of the sampling procedures and the universe from which the sample has been drawn. Also, a complete discussion of exactly how key concepts are operationalized should be given in this section. It is important to include sufficient information so that another can replicate the study. If secondary analysis is employed in the analysis, it is usually sufficient to cite the source of the data (e.g., Inter-University Consortium for Social and Political Research), briefly state the nature of the sampling frame employed (e.g., multi-stage probability sample of American adults, Random-Digit-Dial sample of adults in San Diego, California) specify the date of the data collection (e.g., interviews conducted shortly before and following the 2000 presidential election), and to excuse the survey organization of errors that might appear in the analysis (e.g., I alone am responsible for errors that might appear herein).

3) Empirical Analyses. In this section, you should very briefly review your hypotheses, and systematically test them. Testing begins by analyzing your data in its simplest form, i.e., contingency tables without controls. Describe your findings from the initial texts, and relate them to the hypotheses you presented in the initial section of the paper systematically. If your data do not support your initial hypotheses, then speculate why this might be the case. If the data do not support your initial hypotheses, then speculate on how the analysis might be, i.e., what variables you might add to the analysis or control. In either instance, you should introduce control variables at this stage of the analysis. Again, fully describe the findings of the analysis that employs control variables, relate these findings to the initial hypotheses, and speculate about how further extensions of the analysis might be made. Also speculate about the probable cause of inconsistencies between your findings and your initial theory.

4) Conclusion and Summary. Briefly and concisely summarize the preceding three sections of the paper, paying particular attention to your findings. Then make a summary statement of how your analysis and findings fit into the larger body of literature in the field, and where further research on the particular topic analyzed in your paper should go.

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Variables, Percentagizing, and Table Reading

Political Science

We are concerned with three types of variables. The dependent variable, the independent variable, and the control variable. The dependent variable is the variable we want to explain. (in the example below, whether the U.S. should send troops to invade Canada) The independent variable is the variable we are using to try to explain the dependent variable. (In this case, the respondents' ideological bias liberal or conservative). The hypothesis is that liberals will be opposed to sending troops into Canada and conservatives will be for sending troops into Canada. Classifying position on sending troops into Canada by ideological categories might produce a table of frequencies that looks like Table 1.

Table 1
Position on Sending Troops to Canada by Ideology.
Number of
Position on Issue:LiberalsConservativesRespondents
For Sending Troops100200(300)
Against Sending Troops400300(700)
Number of Respondents(500)(500)(1000)

In a sample of 1,000 people, we have 500 liberals, 500 conservatives, and 300 who are for sending in troops, and 700 who are against sending in troops. (The numbers in parenthesis are the "marginal" or "univariate" distributions.) The internal numbers in the table show that 100 people are liberal and also in favor of sending troops in, 400 are liberal and against sending troops, 200 are both conservative and for sending in troops, and 300 are both conservative and against sending in troops. Since tables are rarely as balanced as this one, cell frequencies are always presented as percentages rather than raw numbers. Percentages permit one to draw precise conclusions about different rates of behavior among groups of different absolute size.

When we convert the frequencies into percentages there are two possibilities: 1) We can percentagize by the dependent variable so that the rows total up to 100 percent (Table 2); or 2) we can percentagize by the independent variable so that the columns add up to 100 percent (Table 3).

Table 2
Ideology by Troop Preference.
Number of
Position on Issue:LiberalsConservativesTotalRespondents
For Sending Troops33.3%66.7100.0%(300)
Against Sending Troops57.1%42.9100.0%(700)

Table 3
Troop Preference by Ideology.
Position on Issue:LiberalsConservatives
For Sending Troops20.0%40.0%
Against Sending Troops80.060.0
Total100.0%100.0%
(N)(500)(500)

The two ways of percentagizing give different figures and are read differently. Table 2 is read: Of those who are in favor of sending troops, 33.3 percent are liberals and 66.7 percent are conservatives. Of' those who are against sending troops, 57.1 percent are liberals and 42.8 percent are conservatives.

Table 3 is read: Of the liberals, 20 percent are in favor of sending troops into Canada and 80 percent are opposed to doing so. Of the conservatives, 40 percent are for sending troops into Canada and 60 percent are opposed to it. Table 3 shows the correct way to percentagize the table because we are interested in the effect of ideology on sending "troops in Canada." We hypothesize that ideology causes issue position so that ideology is the independent variable and issue position (troops to Canada) is the dependent variable. As ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, we anticipate greater support for sending troops into Canada.

A control variable can now be introduced to increase our understanding of the original two variable relationship. Suppose, for example, we think that a conservative respondent does not favor sending in troops (the hypothesized liberal response) because he prefers the use of nuclear weapons. We can control for, or hold constant, the respondents' position on nuclear weapons and then look at the effect of this third variable on the original two. In the following tables respondents have been separated according to whether they approve (Table 4) or disapprove (Table 5) of the use of nuclear weapons.

Table 4
Troop Preference by Ideology among Those Who Approve Nuclear Weapons
Position on Issue:LiberalsConservatives
For Sending Troops100.0%66.7%
Against Sending Troops0.033.3
Total100.0%100.0%
(N)(50)(150)

Only those respondents who are in favor of the use of nuclear weapons.

Table 4
Troop Preference by Ideology among Those Who Disapprove Nuclear Weapons
Position on Issue:LiberalsConservatives
For Sending Troops12.5%28.5%
Against Sending Troops87.571.5
Total100.0%100.0%
(N)(450)(350)

Only those respondents who are oppose to the use of nuclear weapons.

The data in Table 4 show that all of the liberals who were for the use of nuclear weapons also favored sending troops into Canada while two-thirds of the pro-nuclear weapons conservatives took such a position. This lends some support to the supposition that there were conservatives who made the hypothesized liberal response for the "wrong" reason--or at least a reason that was not expected when the initial relationship between the two variables was predicted.

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Nation, birth rate, women in labor force and female literacy

COLUMNS:
Nation
Crude birth rate (number of births per 1000 population size)
Womens economic activity (female labor force as percent of male)
Female adult literacy rate
DATA
Algeria29.0 11 73
Argentina 19.5 38 88
Australia 14.1 61 93
Brazil 21.2 38 80
Canada 13.7 63 95
China 17.8 81 59
Cuba 14.5 50 77
Denmark 12.4 77 92
Egypt 28.7 12 61
France 13.0 64 93
Germany 11.0 . 92
India 27.8 34 44
Iraq 43.6 29 62
Israel 20.4 49 91
Japan 10.7 64 94
Malaysia 28.0 55 75
Mexico 26.6 37 84
Nigeria 43.3 51 41
Pakistan 41.8 16 48
Philippines 30.4 44 68
Russia 12.6 70 85
South Africa 33.4 54 .
Spain 11.2 31 98
United Kingdom 13.2 60 92
United States 15.2 65 94
Vietnam 26.3 82 89

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Command File for Crime by State

DATA LIST FREE / State(A2) VR MR M W H P S.

BEGIN DATA
AK 761 9.0 41.8 75.2 86.6 9.1 14.3
AL 780 11.6 67.4 73.5 66.9 17.4 11.5
AR 593 10.2 44.7 82.9 66.3 20.0 10.7
AZ 715 8.6 84.7 88.6 78.7 15.4 12.1
CA 1078 13.1 96.7 79.3 76.2 18.2 12.5
CO 567 5.8 81.8 92.5 84.4 9.9 12.1
CT 456 6.3 95.7 89.0 79.2 8.5 10.1
DE 686 5.0 82.7 79.4 77.5 10.2 11.4
FL 1206 8.9 93.0 83.5 74.4 17.8 10.6
GA 723 11.4 67.7 70.8 70.9 13.5 13.0
HI 261 3.8 74.7 40.9 80.1 8.0 9.1
IA 326 2.3 43.8 96.6 80.1 10.3 9.0
ID 282 2.9 30.0 96.7 79.7 13.1 9.5
IL 960 11.4 84.0 81.0 76.2 13.6 11.5
IN 489 7.5 71.6 90.6 75.6 12.2 10.8
KS 496 6.4 54.6 90.9 81.3 13.1 9.9
KY 463 6.6 48.5 91.8 64.6 20.4 10.6
LA 1062 20.3 75.0 66.7 68.3 26.4 14.9
MA 805 3.9 96.2 91.1 80.0 10.7 10.9
MD 998 12.7 92.8 68.9 78.4 9.7 12.0
ME 126 1.6 35.7 98.5 78.8 10.7 10.6
MI 792 9.8 82.7 83.1 76.8 15.4 13.0
MN 327 3.4 69.3 94.0 82.4 11.6 9.9
MO 744 11.3 68.3 87.6 73.9 16.1 10.9
MS 434 13.5 30.7 63.3 64.3 24.7 14.7
MT 178 3.0 24.0 92.6 81.0 14.9 10.8
NC 679 11.3 66.3 75.2 70.0 14.4 11.1
ND 82 1.7 41.6 94.2 76.7 11.2 8.4
NE 339 3.9 50.6 94.3 81.8 10.3 9.4
NH 138 2.0 59.4 98.0 82.2 9.9 9.2
NJ 627 5.3 100.0 80.8 76.7 10.9 9.6
NM 930 8.0 56.0 87.1 75.1 17.4 13.8
NV 875 10.4 84.8 86.7 78.8 9.8 12.4
NY 1074 13.3 91.7 77.2 74.8 16.4 12.7
OH 504 6.0 81.3 87.5 75.7 13.0 11.4
OK 635 8.4 60.1 82.5 74.6 19.9 11.1
OR 503 4.6 70.0 93.2 81.5 11.8 11.3
PA 418 6.8 84.8 88.7 74.7 13.2 9.6
RI 402 3.9 93.6 92.6 72.0 11.2 10.8
SC 1023 10.3 69.8 68.6 68.3 18.7 12.3
SD 208 3.4 32.6 90.2 77.1 14.2 9.4
TN 766 10.2 67.7 82.8 67.1 19.6 11.2
TX 762 11.9 83.9 85.1 72.1 17.4 11.8
UT 301 3.1 77.5 94.8 85.1 10.7 10.0
VA 372 8.3 77.5 77.1 75.2 9.7 10.3
VT 114 3.6 27.0 98.4 80.8 10.0 11.0
WA 515 5.2 83.0 89.4 83.8 12.1 11.7
WI 264 4.4 68.1 92.1 78.6 12.6 10.4
WV 208 6.9 41.8 96.3 66.0 22.2 9.4
WY 286 3.4 29.7 95.9 83.0 13.3 10.8
DC 2922 78.5 100.0 31.8 73.1 26.4 22.1
DESCRIPTIVES VARIABLES=ALL.
END DATA.
VARIABLE LABELS VR 'Violent crime rate'/
MR 'Murder rate'/
M 'Percent in metropolitan areas'/
W 'Percent white'/
H 'Percent high school graduates'/
P 'Percent below the poverty level'/
S 'Percent of families headed by a single parent'.
EXECUTE.

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Some Points on Writing a Paper

The following is abstracted from J. Scott Long, "Notes on Writing Effective Papers for S650-2000: Categorical Data Analysis," but is highly pertinent to this and any other class you take in a university.

Long states and I agree that "...The care in which an idea is presented affects the chances of an article being accepted. Before you turn in your assignments, think about whether you are presenting your material as effectively as possible. This handout provides some suggestions that can make your work for (this class...) and your later professional work more effective. As with most rules, there are exceptions."

General Points

  • Use a spelling checker and a grammar checker.
  • Read the instructions carefully.
  • If you don't understand the assignment, ask before you turn it in.
  • When answering a specific question in an assignment, make
  • sure it is clear which question you are answering.
  • Put your name on all separate parts of your assignment.
  • Number the pages.
  • Use staples, and make sure they go through the paper.
  • Use a fixed font for printing computer output. The columns
  • must line up.
  • Learn how to use the following:

    i. "data are" not "data is"

    ii. "effect" and "affect"

    iii. "Ph.D." not "PH.D.", or "Ph.d.", etc.

  • Stick to a few fonts of a reasonable size.
  • Double or 1.5 space, except for tables and computer output.
  • All tables should be set up so that the numbers are aligned. This
  • is often easiest by making the table a fixed font.
  • Don't use full justification if it creates large blanks in a line.
  • When using relative terms, make sure that the comparison is clear.
  • Don't use variable names in describing results unless it is absolutely necessary. Say: "Being a female increases. Don't say, "Increasing VAR04 increases . . . "

Organizing Your Paper

  • Think of your write-up as telling a story. What makes a story compelling for the reader?
  • In general, don't tell the reader what you did not do.
  • Don't make your paper a chronology of how you got the results you got. The logic of discovery and the logic of presentation are quite different.
  • Start with the main point, then build the evidence to support that point.
  • Locate tables and figures where the reader can find them and use them effectively.

Statistical Points

  • Use the same N for all analyses unless there is a reason for the N to change.
  • A small P, a small t, or a small R2 does not imply an incorrect model.
  • Specify the scale of the variable. A change of 12 makes little sense if the reader doesn't have a substantive understanding of what 12 means.
  • Use 98% versus98 consistently.

In General

  • Search for good examples of effective papers. Use them as a model.

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