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POLITICAL SCIENCE 201B (26795)

M 7-9:40 pm SH 343
R. Hofstetter NH-119MW 6-7 594-6804
www-rohan.sdsu.edu/~rhofstet

ELEMENTARY STATISTICS FOR POLITICAL SCIENCE (B)

GOALS:

The objectives of this course are to:

1) Introduce students to basic concepts, theories, and methods of the way in which political scientists compute and use statistics in making decisions about political issues;

2) Train students to use statistical ideas in solving problems;

3) Introduce students to the use of quantitative methods in political and other social science.

Texts and Materials:

Required:
Minium, Edward W., Clarke, Robert C., & Coladarci, Theodore. (1999). Elements of Statistical Reasoning. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2nd ed.
An inexpensive portable calculator (simple arithmetic functions, including square root key).
Optional:
Xeroxed materials, instructor notes.

REQUIREMENTS:

Students should bring an inexpensive calculator to each class. The add, subtract, multiply, divide, and square root functions are the only ones necessary. Please do not purchase an expensive, scientific calculator just for this class. Scientific calculators and hand computers are usually more trouble than they are worth in this for our purposes.

Students are responsible for all material in the assigned portions of the text whether I discuss it explicitly or not. Once class has begun, please enter as unobtrusively as possible or wait until a break to enter the room. If you must leave the class before it is over, please tell me before the class begins unless you suddenly become ill.

Students should complete reading and homework in a manner that maintains pace with the topics being discussed and the lectures. Students are required to attend all class meetings and to take examinations and quizzes in class. (Please note that the purchase of airplane tickets, vacations, athletic events, etc., are not excuses for missing classes.) Quizzes or midterms will be given at each class meeting and are closed book. Students may use up to three pages of handwritten (not typed or photocopied) notes, the syllabus xeroxed statistical tables, and a calculator for exams and quizzes.

No final examination or extra credit assignments will be given. I will discard the lowest quiz grade and the lowest midterm grade. No makeup examinations or quizzes will be given except in extraordinary situations and then at the discretion of the instructor. After two absences I will begin to deduct one grade point for each additional absence except in extraordinary situations.

One to three hours credit for POLS 499 working on research under my supervision may also be available, depending on the semester. Interested students should contact me early in the semester.

SDSU students should also open e-mail accounts. The Social Science Research Laboratory and other such units on campus offer no-charge training in the use of e-mail. I have included my e-mail address on this syllabus to enable students to communicate with me outside my scheduled office hours for students' convenience. The syllabus is also on my website on the URL above. I anticipate that students will make use of this opportunity in case they wish to communicate with me, since I do not check my telephone voice mail at SDSU.

Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. All written work must be your original work (i.e., not previously submitted for credit in any other course, either at SDSU or at any other academic institution). Any questions about this should be addressed to me in advance. Please familiarize yourself with the University Policy regarding Cheating and Plagiarism at: http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/dept/ senate/policy/pfacademics.html And also be aware of the Student Grievances procedure, available on-line at: http://www.sa.sdsu.edu/srr/statement/sectionVII.html

GRADING:

Examinations 30%
Quizzes 30%
Homework 20%
Attendance 20%

Computation of Grades. The process of computing final grades in this class is based on how individual performance compares to class averages (means) on quizzes, midterms, attendance, and other assignments. Each person's score is determined by subtracting the class mean from the score and dividing the result by a measure of how much dispersion there is around the mean for the class (the standard deviation). This is called a Z score in statistics. It adjusts all grades according to the difficulty of tests so that a person scoring high on an easy test (a test for which the class mean is very high) but who scores below the mean will receive a negative Z score while a person who scores low but above the mean on a more difficult test will receive a positive Z score. After eliminating the lowest quiz and lowest midterm scores for each student, the mean of Z scores are computed for each type of assignment (i.e., quizzes, midterms, other assignments, and attendance). A final score is computed by weighting each score by the percentage above, and then summing the weighted scores. Letter grades are assigned based on naturally occurring cut points among final scores.

In the past, persons who consistently Z scores 1 standard deviation above the class mean have received A's in the course, and persons who consistently scores near the class mean have received C's. I alone assign final grades, and students are responsible for checking the number of points assigned to each test or exercise and returning graded work for which a score has been incorrectly entered into blackboard. These kinds of corrections must be made within two weeks of the return of any returned work. NOTE: After two absences unexcused in advance, I will deduct one grade point for each additional absence. No person who fails to complete all assignments will receive a passing grade in this course.


OUTLINE

The course is divided into a series of topics, described below. Approximately one week of lectures and discussions will be allocated to each topic. Minor changes to the schedule may occur in response to needs of students as the semester progresses.

Week 1January 22 Introduction: Minium et al, Chapter 1, Chapoter 1, pp. 1-13. Practice homework: 1,2,3,4. Graded problems 3, 4, p. 13 due January 29.

Week 2January 29Minium et al, Chapter 2, pp. 17-34. Frequency Distributions. Practice homework: 1,3-12. Graded problems: 13, 14, pp.33, 34 due February 5. Minium et al, Chapter 3, pp. 35-50. Graphic Representation. Practice homework: 1,3-5,7-9,11,12. Graded problem: 12, p. 49 due February 5.

Week 3February 5Minium et al, Chapter 4, pp. 51-61. Central Tendency. Practice homework: 2-12,14. Graded problems: 8, p. 60 due February 12. Minium et al, Chapter 5, pp. 63-77. Variability. Practice homework: 2,3,5-11. Graded problems: 5, 15 pp. 76, 77 due February 12. LAST DAY TO DROP/ADD CLASSES is February 7.

Week 4February 12Minium et al, Chapter 6, pp. 79-101. Normal distributions and Standard Scores. Practice homework: 1-3,5-16. Graded problems: 6, 9, 10, 11 pp. 100, 101 due February 19.

Week 5February 19Minium et al, Chapter 7, pp. 103-129. Correlation. Minium et al, Chapter 7, pp. 103-129. Correlation. Practice homework: 1-15. Graded problems: 3, 4, 7 p. 128 due February 26.
First Midterm Examination (weeks 1-4).

Week 6February 26Minium et al, Chapter 8, pp. 131-156. Regression and Prediction. Practice problems 1-9,11-15. Graded problems: 3, 6, p. 153 due March 5.

Week 7March 5Minium et al, Chapter 9, pp. 159-175. Probability and Probability Distributions. Practice homework: 1-19. Graded problems: 4, 5, 7, 15 pp. 173, 174 due March 12.

Week 8March 12Minium et al, Chapter 10, pp. 177-197. Sampling Distributions. Practice homework: 1-19. Graded problems: 7, 10, 11, 15 pp. 195, 196 due March 19.

Week 9March 19Minium et al, Chapter 11, pp. 199-219. Testing Statistical Hypotheses about Mu when Sigma is Known. Practice homework: 1-12,14,15. Graded problems: 4, 15 pp. 218, 219 due April 2. Minium et al, Chapter 12, pp. 221-232. Estimation. Graded problems: 2, 10 pp. 231, 232 due April 2.
Second Midterm Examination (weeks 6-8).

Week 10March 26Spring Break
Week 11April 2Minium et al., Chapter 13, pp. 231-250. Testing Statistical Hypotheses about Mu When Sigma is Not Known: The One Sample t-Test. Practice homework: 1-12,14-16,19. Graded problems: 5, 6, 22 pp. 247-249 due April 9.

Week 11April 9Minium et al, Chapter 14, pp. 251-274. Comparing Means of Two Samples. Practice homework: 1,3,4,5,7-15. Graded problems: 2, 5, 8, 10, 16 pp. 271-273 due April 23.

Week 11April 16Minium et al, Chapter 14, pp. 251-274, continued.
Week 12April 23Minium et al, Chapter 20, pp. 383-405. Chi Square and Frequency Data. Graded problems: 6, 7, 13, 15 pp. 403-405 due April 30.

Week 14April 30Minium et al, Chapter 15, pp. 275-291. Comparing the Means of Dependent Samples. Graded problems: 5, 9, 12 pp. 288-290 due May 7. Minium et al, Chapter 16, pp. 293-307. Inferences about the Pearson Correlation Coefficient. Practice homework: 1-10,14,15,17. Graded problems: 2, 6, 7 p. 305 due May 7.
Week 15Dec. 5Discussion
Third Midterm Examination (weeks 11-13).